LADY LUCK STILL SMILING ON PRIME MINISTER MODI? He may have lost political capital in 18 months, but still has a great opportunity

This week Prime Minister Narendra Modi completed a tumultuous 18 months in Delhi. After winning a historic mandate, not seen in the country in the last 30 years, his party has been rocked by two electoral reverals – one in Delhi in February and the next, more recent, in Bihar.

The political capital that his win had generated seems to have evaporated as a number of experts are now questioning not just his style of functioning but also how the government may have missed a step of two during the 18 month period. 

Experts like Pratap Bhanu Mehta of the Centre for Policy Research and Washington-based Sadanand Dhume seem to suggest that his followers need to mend their way or Modi has to find a way to rein them. Former Hindustan Times Editor Vir Sanghvi says that it is time that the Prime Minister stops campaigning and starts governing. Former Indian Express Editor Shekhar Gupta is convinced that the momentum that the party got after the 2014 is now “fully over”. Research house CLSA’s Rajeev Malik was even more scathing when he said that either the BJP underestimated the complexity of the economic inheritance or overestimated its ability to fix the problems quickly.

But the good news is that some of the luck that is needed to turn the tables on the Opposition, which has suddenly got a new lease of life, has still not deserted him. 

Global crude prices are still hovering at very comfortable levels. India’s crude basket is hovering around the $40/barrel mark. The opportunity to fix the oil sector and the pricing mechanism for energy products is screaming for his attention and he will be found wanting if he chooses not to exercise the option. Letting consumers pay for higher oil prices is one of the ways to keep 2015 fiscal’s $112 billion oil import bill in check.

In July 2008, crude prices had hit an all time high of $147.27/barrel, throwing the UPA government’s finances in a complete mess. Since then it hovered around the $100/barrel mark for several months well into 2012 before the producers flooded the market which consumes about 87-88 million barrels every day, driving down prices to current levels. NDA has been very lucky and it seems, on this front, it will continue to thrive on its luck.

Coal imports have been showing a declining trend for four consecutive months and last week Power Minister Piyush Goyal said that the country will not need to import coal, except for power plants located near the coastal area. Since coal accounts for two-thirds of India’s power plants’ needs, this could turn out to be big change.

With Solar power, NTPC has already received bids below Rs 5/unit and that could prove to be the game changer for India. With its target to achieve 20 gigawatt of solar power by 2020, India will need to better that target to emerge as a renewable superpower on the global stage.

While these look like interesting opportunities, it is now time to talk about the problem. 

Those who still want to still retain control over the direction of policies refuse to let any opportunity go when they can go muscle flexing. Several times when their views are in stark contrast of those of the under-25 teeming millions in the country, the faultlines are clearly visible. It is here that the hothead supporters of the party step in, again, hopelessly out of sync with the reality.

The hotheads sometime reason that their party has the nation’s backing, pointing out to the 282 seats it had in the 545-member Lok Sabha. 

30 years ago, Congress under Rajiv Gandhi faced a similar situation, some of its party members resorted to arson and looting during the anti-Sikh riots of 1984. Brazenly, they party thought it could brush the need for justice. The party managed 404 seats and BJP could manage just two. Five years later, it was reduced to 197 seats and BJP had jumped to 85. 

The nation has given BJP, and Prime Minister Modi, a never before opportunity. As the Congress has learnt, never having got a majority since 1984, the nation can be unforgiving.

Narendra Modi's PR issues!!!

During his Chief Ministership,  Narendra DamodarDas Modi, the face of the development in Gujarat and an enigma for rest of the world, including people living outside Gujarat in India, went on a public relation spree when he hired a global public affairs and communication firm to improve his image and to showcase Gujarat as the dream destination for investment to the world community. His Vibrant Gujarat campaign became his calling card and suddenly Narendra Modi had arrived on the national scene on the development plank!

Come National elections and BJPs choice of the PM candidate,  disclosed in 2013 itself, Narendra Modi had firmly been estblished as a messiah for the downtrodden who would change the face of India with a magic wand just like Harry Potter.

In the run up to 2014 election, BJP and Mr. Modi hired another firm, an Indian firm this time, for image and reputation management. There is no denying that the agency did a tremendous job as it was successful in creating a Modi wave across the country and BJP came to power with a resounding win.

He is one of the very few politicians who understand that news makes opinion and that this is a job best handled by professionals. His PR machinery works wonders for him and, despite one or two hiccups, the entire campaign was successful in creating the brand "NaMo".

After he became the Prime Minister, Narendra Modi got the attention that he deserved and the national as well as international media was quick to share how a tea vendor with no resources at all  became the Prime Minister of the largest democracy of the world. His invitations to the leaders of the APAC region, especially Pakistan, to the swearing in won him laurels from across the world and this was only through effective media management.

After one year of Modi Government, the social media which was instrumental in his phenomenal rise, has suddenly been filled with sarcastic remarks pointing out mistakes in his working style. The news of his meeting with the Chinese premier, Obama's visit to India as a Chief Guest for 26th january, India’s Nuclear Pact with Australia, decline in communal clashes, Rising hopes of the world in Indian economy, has all been overshadowed by his travelling across the world, his suit on republic day and the Lalitgate episode.

The sudden change in the PR tactics where he chose not to respond to these accusations, neither in any interview, nor on the social media, is quite surprising as he was the one who used social media successfully to shape his public image. The role of his PR machinery and the external PR agency that I believe he is still working with, therefore becomes very very important. They have to ensure that they are proactively disseminating information on his ideology and his leadership that will lead to a strong and prosperous India. 

It is high time that the people of India start witnessing the changes that have been brought about in the country which was why they had bestowed faith on this man and given him a majority in the Parliament. It is the responsibility of the PR team of NaMo to start working in full gear again. Today the dent in his credibility is more due to his sudden silence on several controversial issues rather than any real change in his situations. Things are getting better on ground and people's perception of the same is getting worse.

It is important that his PR machinery understands that the Indian population, which voted him into power on the basis of the trust that he commanded from each one of them, is very very finicky and can easily overturn the situation at the next elections. Backed by strong actions, the PR team needs to come up with a long term strategy to undo the damage caused, and move on to rebuild the trust amongst the citizens of the country.

The PR team also needs to proactively look at what and when to comment and  when to shut up and share their thoughts on topical issues. People in the country are suddenly very sceptical of the status quo and Team NaMo needs to realize that it takes time to build an image. The team was successful in building the image and reputation once but it needs constant work. The NaMo machinery needs to start reinforcing the brand MODI again, before it is too late.  

Image Courtesy: www.narendramodi.in